What if I catch the bug?

One of the most damaging qualities of the SARS-CoV-2 virus for the society at large is the combination of a long period of infectiousness, a relatively silent incubation and a high transmissibility. These three factors, which are also present in the regular influenza virus responsible for the seasonal flu, are the main reason why it is so hard to control the spread of any of them. The main difference, of course, lies in the effect of the virus, both during the acute phase and in the long term, which are much more serious in the case of the SARS-CoV-2.

Photo: pikist

It is obvious from the influenza case that the only sustainable response is to obtain a vaccine that would allow us to break the transmission chains of the virus. A remarkable property of vaccines is that it is not necessary to inoculate every single person to avoid the spread of the virus: the numbers vary as a function of the transmissibility of the virus, but in most cases a 50% vaccination is enough to keep the spread under control, and inoculations around 70% are enough to eventually eradicate the disease.

While we wait that a working vaccine becomes a reality, all that is left to us is to keep our distance from one another, wear a mask when necessary and report to your doctor as soon as you start to show symptoms. The problem now is determining which symptoms deserve a visit to the doctor and when they are credibly just a cold or the normal flu, because it is obvious that the presence of COVID-19 is not going to stop all the other diseases, related or not. Indeed, already in March Tomás Pueyo pointed out in Medium that a non-negligible portion of the death toll associated with the current pandemic would not be caused by the virus itself, but by all the other diseases which would not be fatal under normal circumstances but cannot be (properly) treated due to the saturation of the medical system.

Chances are that the seasonal flu will register less cases this year thanks to the widespread use of face masks, but still some people are going to get through it. In particular, Trevor has not been feeling too well the last three days, and Jason and Karen are a bit under the weather today as well. What shall they do now? We could follow the rules strictly, but staying away from school would essentially mean a 14-day ban, and we do not want the kids to miss two weeks of school. The fact is that they have not shown signs of coughing or fever, so in all likelihood it will just be a normal cold, so they just have to power through it and try not make to much noise in class in case an overly concerned teacher sends them home.

In the meantime, I continue to make progress with my course and the presentation for next Tuesday, and in the office we have managed to prepare an updated version of the instrument software that will go live by the end of the month. I will keep you posted with the results. Cheers!