A convenient non-truth

Reading the news about the politically and socially divisive situation in Germany with the recent explosive growth in the number of corona virus cases I could not help contemplating the whole spectrum of statements and their different degrees of truth, from the false to the true, across half-truths, opinions, beliefs, hopes and wishes, and the ways they can be used to influence (a.k.a. manipulate) how we feel and the actions we take. The problem is that a statement like "I hope it does not rain this weekend" has two different values of truth: the hope is true, you are sincerely hoping for a sunny Saturday, but the part where it does not rain is neither true not false, mainly because it has not happened yet. In fact, every statement about the future is technically undecided, even if our statistical evidence makes the prediction extremely likely. As I mentioned before, if you release your pen from a height it is very likely that it will fall, but it is possible that it is so sticky that, instead, it stays glued to your hand.

The reflection came about reading how, in many countries, vaccination is being dubbed as the "socially responsible" action, while people who are skeptical about the vaccine are considered selfish, evil or plainly crazy. This all comes from the belief that the vaccine will stop the pandemic, and I call it a belief because there was not even solid statistical evidence that this could be the case: as long as vaccinated people can still catch the infection at a significant rate (~10%) and they can propagate the infection (even if we admit that the rate might be lower than for non-vaccinated), there is no way that the pandemic is going to be stopped by the vaccine alone. Still, governments and the media has lead a big fraction of the society that this is the case, not because it will be true, but because the pandemic will be easier to handle (even if it will still be there) when a lot of people are inoculated. But let me point out how getting the jab is, first and foremost, a selfish action and has nothing to do with solidarity.

Photo: David

It is beyond any discussion that the most immediate beneficiary of the vaccine (of any vaccine, in fact) is the patient, who will not suffer the disease (or just a milder version of it). That is the reason why the elderly and the sick were given priority to get inoculated, because they get the most benefit from it. On a second order or protection are the loved ones, and we have all heard the stories of those people who did not dare to visit their elderly parents until they were vaccinated themselves. From this point of view, protecting your loved ones (and not the society at large) is a second individual benefit from the vaccine.

The third aspect is the warm glow that one gets from doing "the right thing". We are a gregarious species and going with the flow is a very rewarding situation which makes us feel like we belong to something bigger than us and that we are not (so) alone. But that is not the only psychological benefit from the vaccine: it also leads to "moral licensing", the feeling that, because we have already done something good we do not need to push ourselves to keep doing good things. In the particular case of the COVID-19, being vaccinated might give us permission to relax our observance of other rules such as hand hygiene or mask wearing.

And there are still the individual benefits of the jab on the social level. The first one is that, under the widespread request to get vaccinated, those who comply get high regard by the rest. They not only feel good for their compliance, but their friends, family and colleagues get to pat them on the back when they hear about it (which the indubitably do). And last, but not least, being vaccinated means (sadly) additional freedoms, from access to certain crowded events which is not allowed without the jab to a more lenient set of regulations everywhere else, including the very common exemption from the need to test yourself.

In one episode of the series Friends, Joey argues against Phoebe that there is no such a thing as a selfless good deed, that every action has an underlying interest, but it is clear to me that the personal benefits of the vaccine are far from hidden. And if, under these circumstances, a significant portion of the people decide to give up on those benefit and suffer instead the repeated pummeling by the authorities and their neighbors one has to admit that they must have fairly strong reasons. And the assumption that it is just pure obstinacy does not add up, when the uptake of most mandated vaccines is about 90%.

We all need to see the light at the end of the tunnel, to hope for some degree of normalcy and to be able to plan our lives with a modicum of outlook for the future, but vaccines alone are not going to get us there and those who believe it are bound to be disappointed. If the intent is to reduce the number of cases the only reliable way is going to be testing, testing a lot and indiscriminately, so that every case is detected as early as possible regardless of the vaccination state and the intensity of the symptoms. My kids belong to the few in their school classes that are not vaccinated and, instead, get tested three times a week. With that procedure they found last week two classes where there were cases. What would have happened if everyone had been vaccinated and therefore the whole class would have been exempt from testing?

I tried to paraphrase the title of the 2006 documentary about Al Gore's campaign against global warming but then I realized that every lie and every half-truth are indeed created out of convenience. Reality can favor or hamper the pursue of our goal and, when the latter happens, omissions, misrepresentation and even open lies can iron our way ahead, even at the cost of someone else's losses. The inaccurate representation of the benefits of the vaccine will ease the job of the governments and give ample benefits to the media outlets at the expense of public funds and social division. Let us try to counter this trend by trusting the good judgment of most people and respecting their decisions. Have a nice evening.